"Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future" -- Niels Bohr

One thing is certain, advertising and marketing activities in the next decade will certainly be very different than those of today. Technological advances coupled with changes in advertisers' and consumers' perspectives will certainly lead to new approaches to the marketing and advertising of products and services.

This section revisits some of the key trends and issues raised in prior sections and speculates as to their impact on the future of the yellow pages. However, before looking specifically at trends likely to affect the yellow pages, we recommend two papers that look at the "big picture" of media and marketing trends and developments. These papers, written by the faculty of the London Business School, are "Predictions: Media" and "Marketing and the Internet." The papers are available free from the London Business School Predictions web site (scroll to the bottom of the Predictions web site's home page for links to the papers).

There is no question that technological advances over the past several decades have influenced the way we interact with and view/use information. Jean Paul Jacob provides this perspective on where we have come from and where we might be headed:

"If the last 30 years were characterized by the increased presence of computers (from mainframes to personal computers), the next 30 years will be marked by the gradual "disappearance" of computers and increasing presence of "invisible computing." In fact, computing resources (embedded chips) will be present in hundreds of billions of devices making computing ubiquitous, pervasive and invisible. Your cellular phone will give you access to the Web and be a digital camera, your refrigerator will call the repair shop when it is in need of repair or adjustment, game consoles will be powerful computers, etc. At the other extreme, computing power will reach new magnitudes, allowing us to do calculations which are only dreams today ...

In the next 30 years we will continue to witness an explosion in communication technologies satisfying our need to communicate not just with other people, but with information, entertainment, and "things" -- anytime and anywhere. We have consistently underestimated our needs in these areas. The success and popularity of now basic communication technologies (the cell phone, notebook computer, compact disk, DVD and the world wide web) illustrate humans' personal and business communication needs. We now live in a world where a "network-centric universe" is rapidly evolving and changing the way we live, from communication, to business, to entertainment.

A "networked world" is good because it will help individuals interact with others in ways never before possible. The Web allows us, in real time, to make travel plans and reservations, participate and interact with our government ... We can interact with financial institutions, look for the best deal on a mortgage, buy a car, and make financial transactions using "on-line banking." The Web allows us to participate in a new economy, where price changes instantly, following supply and demand in ways never before thought possible. You can make an instant offer to purchase a "perishable good" such as an airplane seat or a hotel room. You can also form instantaneous alliances with others around the world to collectively buy large quantities of a product at prices that decrease depending upon the quantity to be purchased. It is a new world where instantaneous changes in prices are possible, not possible in bricks and mortar stores or catalogs." (Excerpted from "Informatics")

One important aspect of Jacob's perspective is the relationship between changes in the information delivery system (the hardware) and changes in the types of information delivered, as well as how that information is used. While this relationship can be seen in the examples cited by Jacob, it can also be seen in developments related to the yellow pages.

Changes in Delivery Systems

Yellow pages information is currently delivered in one of two forms: the printed directory or online via the Internet. Additional delivery systems such as voice and wireless have high potential as future delivery modes allowing consumers to have access to business information wherever they are whenever they need it. The Kelsey Group summarizes this potential development as follows:

"The wireless directory applications that have been developed [up to now] are fairly simple, enabling users to search by business name and category and providing only bare-bones directory information. Armed with new and improved wireless phones and other devices, mobile consumers will increasingly require - and use - more feature-rich, location-based directory services.

[This would lead to] automated voice and wireless Yellow Pages platforms eventually converging to create a seamless mobile directory offering that enables users to receive both voice and text-based responses to their queries, depending upon their needs." (Source: The Kelsey Group, "The Next Frontier: Voice and Wireless Yellow Pages")

Changes in Information Access

Section 3 discussed how Internet Yellow Pages provide business information. These sites typically ask an individual to type the name of a business category or individual business name into a search "box" after which the relevant search results are displayed. Once the search results are displayed, the consumer then reads through the advertising to find more detailed business information such as hours, specialties, etc.

Technological developments now permit more refined, informative and relevant search results. Changes to the DexOnline Interent Yellow Pages site illustrate these developments. DexOnline has changed the characteristics of its database and has implemented new search procedures to access business information that together "move the Dex product closer to the functionality of popular search engines, like Google." (Charles Laughlin, The Kelsey Group, 1/6/04)

DexOnline has extracted the advertising copy from the 240,000 display and 500,000 in-column ads in its print directories. This results in all print directory advertising content (such as hours, specializations, etc.) being placed into the DexOnline Internet Yellow Pages data base.

When individuals come to DexOnline they are no longer faced with the choice of searching by category or by specific business name, (as is the case with traditional Internet yellow pages) . Rather, they are presented with one search "box" into which they can type any combination of a business category name, business name or business information such as forms of payment, specific services offered, hours of operation, or other key words. The DexOnline search box is shown below.

You could, for example, search for Dentists in Denver who use the word "afraid" in their advertising or who use the terms "bleaching" or "braces" if these were specialties in which you were interested.

The data base is then searched and relevant search results are displayed. In this example, there was one dentist in Denver matching the search criteria of "dentists" and "afraid." This dentist's listing is shown below. Note that a link is provided to the dentist's print directory ad.

While DexOnline allows an individual to refine the initial search, it also permits greater focus after the search has been initiated and the initial set of results displayed.

Below is an example of the search results for "personal injury lawyer" in Denver. On the right-hand side of the search results (in the yellow boxes) are additional criteria that individuals might use to refine their search. The search results can be further narrowed by selecting specific concerns, payment concerns, service options, types, years of experience or location. Additional refinement options available via links include assurances, hours of operation, kinds, practices and specialties.

Laughlin considers this "a radical departure from traditional IYPs (Internet Yellow Pages)" which represent "one of the genuine innovations of a free-text search approach."

Create New Media Synergy and Opportunities

Advertisers are in the process of revising their criteria for media selection. In this age of multiple media vehicles and fragmented media audiences, advertisers are increasingly evaluating the extent to which a specific advertising medium makes both an independent contribution and works synergistically with other media to help achieve strategic goals. Advertising placement and content at the most recent Super Bowl (2004) illustrate this new approach to media evaluation and usage.

Superbowl advertisers used online and television advertising to promote their products. Importantly, messages were not simply duplicated across these two mediums. Instead, messages were coordinated and customized to take maximum advantage of the strengths of each medium and to capitalize on the synergies of these strengths. USA Today notes that this combination of television and online advertising worked particularly well for three strategic goals:

• Sales leads. Mitsubishi's www.seewhathappens.com offered the cliffhanger finale to a Super Bowl ad in which the Galant takes on a Toyota Camry in an "accident avoidance" test. The ad combination more than doubled traffic to Mitsubishi's web site.

  Joseph Jaffee of Imediaconnection describes Mitsubishi's dual use of media as "the end of one chapter and the beginning of another in the great book of integrated marketing. When an interactive client takes on integrated responsibility; when a risk-inclined company embraces change; when an innovative brand communicates with confidence, clarity and creativity, we really see what can happen: the convergence of form and function; TV and the Web; idea and execution; brand and business." (See Case Study: "See What Happens." For additional discussion of the Mitsubishi advertising, including video of the commercial, see Ad Age, Crashing Car Story Line Spans Two Mediums; Pulls High Online Traffic)

• Propelling promotions. Pepsi's Super Bowl ad began a two-month giveaway of 99-cent music downloads from Apple's iTunes.com store using winning codes on Pepsi soft-drink caps. The ad increased iTunes' Super Bowl Sunday traffic nearly 593% vs. previous Sundays.

• Brand building. Sites for erectile dysfunction drugs Levitra and Cialis both saw increased traffic following their Super Bowl ads.

It is likely that the yellow pages will benefit from this increased emphasis on media synergy. As discussed in Section 2, research has shown that the yellow pages work well to extend the reach and influence of other media. And, as discussed in Section 5, the yellow pages work well to complete the brand evaluation and selection processes for categories in which consumers come to the yellow pages without one specific business name in mind.

Changing Attitudes Toward Advertising - Permission Marketing

Section 5 presented Blumler and Katz's uses and gratifications theory, in which individuals select a medium because of the psychological , intellectual or emotional reward that medium provides. Because a specific medium is selected for its content, advertising that appears within that medium must breakthrough and grab the individual's attention.

This model of advertising has been labeled "Interruption Marketing" and is described by Seth Godin as follows:

"Almost no one goes home eagerly anticipating junk mail in their mailbox. Almost no one reads People magazine for the ads. Almost no one looks forward to a three minute commercial interruption on Must See TV.

Advertising is not why we pay attention. Yet marketers must make us pay attention for the ads to work. If they don't interrupt our train of thought by planting some sort of seed in our conscious or subconscious, the ads fail. Wasted money. If an ad falls in the forest and no one notices, there is no ad.

You can define advertising as the science of creating and placing media that interrupts the consumer and then gets him or her to take some action. That's quite a lot to ask of thirty seconds of TV time or 25 square inches of the newspaper, but without interruption, there's no chance for action, and without action, advertising flops.

As the marketplace for advertising gets more and more cluttered, it becomes increasingly difficult to interrupt the consumer. Imagine you're in an empty airport, early in the morning. There's hardly anyone there as you leisurely stroll towards your plane. Suddenly, someone walks up to you and says, "Excuse me, can you tell me how to get to Gate 7?" Obviously, you weren't hoping for, or expecting, someone to come up and ask this question, but since he looks nice enough and you've got a spare second, you interrupt your train of thought and point him on his way. Now, imagine the same airport, but it's three in the afternoon and you're late for your flight. The terminal is crowded with people, all jostling for position. You've been approached five times by various faux charities on your way to the gate, and you've got a headache to top it all off. Same guy comes up to you and asks the same question. Odds are, your response will be a little different. If you're a New Yorker, you might ignore him altogether. Or you may stop what you were doing, say, "sorry," and then move on. A third scenario is even worse. What if he's the fourth, or the tenth, or the one hundredth person who's asked you the same question? Sooner or later you're going to tune out the interruptions. Sooner or later, it all becomes background noise. Well, your life is a lot like that airport scene. You've got too much to do and not enough time to get it done. You're being accosted by strangers constantly.

Every day, you're exposed to more than four hours of media. Most of it is optimized to interrupt what you're doing. And increasingly, it's getting harder and harder to find a little peace and quiet. The ironic thing is that marketers have responded to this problem with the single worst cure possible. To deal with the clutter and the diminished effectiveness of Interruption Marketing, they're interrupting us even more! That's right. Over the last thirty years, advertisers have dramatically increased their ad spending. They've also increased the noise level of their ads-more jump cuts, more in-your-face techniques-and searched everywhere for new ways to interrupt your day. Thirty years ago, clothing did not carry huge logos. Commercial breaks on television were short. Magazines rarely had three hundred pages of ads (as many computer magazines do today). You could even watch PBS without seeing several references to the "underwriter." As clutter has increased, advertisers have responded by increasing clutter. And as with pollution, because no one owns the problem, no one is working very hard to solve it."

(Excerpted from Seth Godin, Permission Marketing. To obtain the first four chapters of Permission Marketing for free click here.)

Godin's proposed alternative to Interruption Marketing is Permission Marketing, where consumers provide marketers with the permission to send them certain types of promotional messages. In this approach to marketing and advertising, consumers control what advertising they see and the circumstances in which that advertising is sent and received. (For an in-depth discussion of Permission Marketing see Krishnamurthy, "A Comprehensive Analysis of Permission Marketing")

The yellow pages satisfy the criteria for permission marketing because consumers come to the yellow pages with the intention of being exposed to and reading the advertising. They know that the medium and the advertising it presents are one and the same and, as a result, they give the medium "permission" to communicate the advertising. Consumers' granting of permission results in a very positive mindset as they read through the ads.

Permission Marketing is typically discussed in the context of the Internet and e-mail campaigns. Atad et. al. (What is Permission Marketing?) points out these advantages of e-mail permission marketing:

• Delivers Receptive Audiences - The offer reaches an audience that has already expressed an interest in the topic.
  

• Low Cost - Compared to other forms of direct marketing, e-mail marketing is significantly less expensive.

• Easy to Test, Track and Evaluate - E-mail is an ideal testing medium, offering a range of trackable events. E-mail enables marketers to test different list sources, combinations of interest categories, various creative approaches, and even elements of timing.

• High Response - Typically, permission e-mail campaigns result in better response rates than traditional direct marketing or other types of online advertising.

What is interesting about this list is that beyond the Internet, of all major advertising media, only the yellow pages satisfy the criteria enumerated by Atad, further demonstrating the strengths of this medium when evaluated within the context of permission marketing. Below we've revised Atad's focus, moving from e-mail to the yellow pages. (Our revisions and additions are shown in red.)

• Delivers Receptive Audiences - The offer reaches an audience that has already expressed an interest in the topic. There is no wasted yellow pages audience exposure. All who come to a heading have a need or a problem to solve, and are attempting to solve the need or problem through use of the heading's advertising. This may be why more than 75% of consumers believe that the yellow pages are "a helpful source of information" that "helps them learn more about products and services."
  

• Low Cost - Compared to other forms of direct marketing, e-mail marketing is significantly less expensive. As is the yellow pages. CRM Associates estimates that the cost per influenced consumer is lower in the yellow pages ($9.10) versus newspaper ($18.43), magazines ($26.30), radio ($31.72) and television ($56.75).

• Easy to Test, Track and Evaluate - E-mail is an ideal testing medium, offering a range of trackable events. E-mail enables marketers to test different list sources, combinations of interest categories, various creative approaches, and even elements of timing. As discussed in Section 2, instead of an advertiser's regular business telephone number, a special telephone number can be placed in a yellow pages ad. When a customer dials this number, it passes through a meter that records the call placed, and then forwards the call to the advertised business. This process takes only seconds and the caller is unaware that it ever happened. As a result, yellow pages advertisers can track the number of calls generated by an ad and then, through the use of a ROI calculator, determine the ROI on their yellow pages advertising.

• High Response - Typically, permission e-mail campaigns result in better response rates than traditional direct marketing or other types of online advertising. Yellow pages also provide high levels of response. Across all categories 83% of consumers make contact after viewing the yellow pages.

Changing Media Habits

Media habits and media preferences continue to change, with online media consumption responsible for some of the major changes. Ad Age summarizes the effect of online media habits on television viewership as follows:

Of the 11.8 hours the average Internet user spends online weekly, more than half is coming from TV viewing and almost none from sleep or socialization ... Internet users watch 28% less TV than non-Internet users. (Source: Ad Age, Internet Erosion of TV Viewing Habits Deepens")

Changes in media habits require advertisers to be more sophisticated in their use of media. Coupled with consumers' increasing control over how and when advertising messages are received means that advertisers need to make very certain that a medium not only reaches their target, but reaches them when they are likely to be paying attention and receptive to the advertising message.

Beyond changes in how consumers allocate time across media, advertisers' face an additional hurdle: Simultaneous Media Usage (SIMM). An October 2003 BIGresearch SIMM survey showed over 70% of consumers, at one time or another, used media simultaneously. When consumers are actively engaged in more than one medium at a time, the question for advertisers becomes: Who is listening to what? The BIGresearch SIMM survey found the following behaviors:

• Radio. More than half of those listening to the radio simultaneously go online (57.3%) while 46.9% read the newspaper. (Let's hope that they are not in their car!)

• Television. Documentaries are the preferred TV programming for those who watch TV and go online simultaneously. Documentaries lend themselves to listening, perfect for the simultaneous media using TV watchers ... Movies are the preferred programming for people who read newspapers and also watching TV (64.3%) followed by police detective shows (56%) and situation comedies (51.5%.) . For those who wonder what happened to the 18-34 year old television viewer whose decline caused Nielsen much heat from the networks this past fall ... SIMM also shows some decline - 18-24 year olds (down 8.8%) and 25-34 year olds (down 12.2%) ... What are they doing instead of watching TV while online? They are playing video games.

• Newspaper. Newspaper and radio seem to go together. About half of newspaper readers (52.4%) say they watch TV or listen to the radio (49.6%) when reading the newspaper. Slightly more women (52.4%) than men (49.6%) prefer reading the newspaper and listening to the radio simultaneously.

• Online. Online users are also frequent simultaneous media users. 52.1% of online users say they simultaneously listen to the radio ... an even greater number (61.8%) say they watch TV ... 20.2% are reading the newspaper.

The BIGresearch SIMM survey did not track yellow pages, so we have to estimate SIMM for yellow pages users. Given the motivation of yellow pages to solve a problem (see Uses and Gratifications theory in Section 5) it is likely that SIMM is low and the attention paid to yellow pages advertising is high -- the opposite of the media shown above. Thus, for advertisers wishing to capture the target's relatively undivided attention, the yellow pages is likely to remain an important vehicle.

Alternative Search Options

Consumers who want to electronically search for local businesses, goods and services have had two options. First, they could use one of the Internet Yellow Pages (IYP) sites such as Superpages.com, Smartpages.com, DexOnline or Yellowpages.com. Second they could use a search engine such as Google or Yahoo!. Consumers using this latter approach, known as local search, would add the name of a city or state to their search inquiry, for example, "san diego dentist" or "new york florist." Susan Kuchinskas of ClickZ describes the competition between these two sources as follows:

"The stakes are rising as major search players stake their claims ... The IYP and SEM services [Search Engine Management services that provide local search] go about helping people find local businesses in entirely different ways, yet both are going after the same audience and competing for traffic they can turn into revenue. This rapidly evolving space could see the fiercest competition of any online ad play.

In this battle, Internet Yellow Pages have two edges over search engines: brand awareness and a local sales force that can bundle print and online buys. A recent analysis based upon the new comScore Media Metrix Local Market Reporting system showed there's no consistency in the way users in different locales use directory search sites, but they do tend to use the online versions of their local telcos' directories. For example, Internet users in Austin, Houston and Green Bay are disproportionately likely to visit SmartPages.com, which is owned by SBC, a major provider of local telephone services in those markets, while more people use Verizon's SuperPages Network in the markets in which it operates. And, just as Internet searchers use familiar directories to find local businesses, those local businesses themselves are more likely to test the Web through their local Yellow Pages providers." (source: IYP versus SEM)

At the moment, it appears that Internet Yellow Pages have an edge over local search options provided by the major search engines. Beyond the advantages cited by Kuchinskas it also appears that consumers prefer to use IYP sites, as about 90% of all searches for local businesses go through these sites (source: One in Ten Local Searches Commercial in Nature). This is understandable given the differences in the organization and types of information provided by IYPs and search engines.

Google is also optimizing its local search capabilities. According to Jim Wagner of InternetNews:

"In beta testing, Google Local lets users find shops and information that's right around the corner. Previously, a general Web search for "pizza" might return unwanted results, such as sites documenting the history of the food or links to far-flung restaurants. The more focused results appear at the top-left of the search page, separated from regular findings and sporting a compass icon. Under a title, "Local Results for (your search term) at (your city, state and zip code)," several stores will be linked, along with driving directions and a phone number. Searchers can also specify the radius of the local search, from one to 45 miles ... The company expects to include local information searches for international customers in the coming months." (source: Google Goes Local)

Finally, for additional discussion of local search see Danny Sullivan's five-part series at ClickZ: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5.